I excerpt below, in chronological order, portions of my prior posts here that refer to Elinor Ostrom (the political scientist who recently was awarded the Nobel prize in economics) and are indebted to her thinking.
Perhaps items 3 and 10 are most accessible for readers in a hurry to find links to her own work.
1. Too Many or Too Few People? Does the market provide an answer?, Sep 28 2007:
Too many or too few? Good question, Dan.
I agree with you that the population question is like any other aspect
of the social order: best addressed by the market and by free societies.
There are just a few small problems – even within the developed
world (and very clearly outside of it), there are many important
resources that are unowned and thus not fully priced in the “market” economy.
Unowned resources include almost all of Nature. Primary
productivity (the amount of vegetation produced from photosynthesis)
has changed little, so as we use technology and our organizational
abilities to divert more and more of it to feed us, this is an
inevitable cost to other species, either directly or in the form of
altered environments that support less life (and less diversity of
life).
In altering our environments to suit us, we are of course no
different from other life forms that compete for resources to live and
propagate, but with our technical and organizational abilities, mankind
has clearly triumphed over the rest of nature (except perhaps evolving
microbes, to whom we represent an increasingly large and relatively
untapped food source). But at what cost?
Through the centuries we have wiped out many wild systems of food
and other resources – because they were never owned, and because our
improving technology enabled us to race each other to take the
resources before others (or from others, in the case of many native
peoples). Not only Jared Diamond`s “guns, germs and steel”, but
also forms of social organization have played deciding roles in the
competition between human societies for survival, growth and
dominance. In this regard, societies that recognize and protect
property rights and utilize free markets have proven clearly superior
in the competition with other societies to obtain and utilize available
resources.
But our struggle has been not only to capture resources and to use
them before others do, but also to manage and protect them
effectively. Evolving ownership systems have been a key means of
limiting wasteful “tragedy of the commons” struggles (see Yandle; von Mises),
but even where ownership systems have been implemented, we have
generally replaced complex natural systems with simpler systems
designed solely to feed us (and particularly so where, due to higher
consumptive demand, we have replaced common property systems with
private property systems (Ostrom)).
Meanwhile, virtually all of the natural world – the world’s oceans,
atmosphere, tropical reefs, tropical forests and other great commons –
remain unowned and thus unmanaged and unregulated (or indigenous
occupants have been forced aside). For example, the great cod fishery
off of the Grand Banks that fed Europe for centuries has now
disappeared, and other fishery stocks worldwide are crashing – to be
“replaced” by “farmed” fish that are fed to a substantial degree by
catching and grinding up fish stocks that humans prefer not to consume
directly, and in part by fish firms that are established by destroying
the mangroves that are estuaries to various fisheries. The same is
true of the replacement of vast tracts of tropical forests with
soybeans or oil palm plantations, with the rapid increase in
atmospheric CO2 (and attendant risks to climate) and with the
correspondingly geolologically rapid increases in ocean acidification (and
threats to plankton, corals and shellfish).
While populations in the developed economies are now relatively
stable, demand from our markets (as well as the burgeoning developing
markets) continues to strip out unowned (or mismanaged “public”)
resources from the oceans or undeveloped countries, aided by
kleptocratic elites who are happy to steal from the peoples they
supposedly represent in order to line their own pockets.
As Dan points out, property rights failures in poorer nations
contributes to population growth there by delaying the demographic
transitions that we have experienced. Developed economies face similar
problems with respect to “public”, state-owned lands, for which
rent-seeking by and sweet deals to insiders are enduring problems and
sources of politcal conflict (as markets cannot work to allocate
resources).
Dan states that the stunningly rapid growth of human populations
from the Renaissance to the present (6+ billion now expected to nearly
double again soon) “actually represents the rise of capitalism and
capital development … [and] shows … the stunning capacity of
freedom to provide for the whole world.” While partly correct, this
misses completely the question of our massive impact, within a very
short period of geological time, on the environment in which we evolved
over millions of years, the fact this has occurred because clear and
enforceable property rights have not been created in many of the
resources that have been consumed, and the corollary fact that
we continue to lack the ability to manage our impact on our endowment
of natural resources.
The market clearly does NOT send accurate pricing signals with
respect to goods that are unowned or ineffectively owned; these goods
are either unpriced or underpriced, so the effect is overconsumption
until the point that the resource is greatly degraded, at which point
attention is turned to the next unowned resource. Thus, human
populations are responding to rather imperfect market signals. And
where resources are unowned, individuals and groups with differing
values and desires cannot adjust or realize those desires by means of
private, market transactions. As a result, we are seeing a recourse to
the public and political arenas – and the inevitable discordant debates
– as various parties seek to use either moral suasion or the levers of
government (locally, nationally and internationally) to advance what
they consider to be their own interests. (Of course, in a “tragedy of
the commons” situation, all resource users share an interest is the
future availability of a resource; the difficulty is in the prisoners’
dilemma negotiations at the primary user level about how to allocate
short-term pain in the interest of long-term gains, compounded in the
case of multinational resources by rent-seeking with each national
participant.)
A cynic may say that our ongoing assault on nature is only
“natural”, presents no moral or philosophical issues and that we hardly
owe any responsibilities to “nature” or even “future generations” – so
let’s just all keep on partying, consuming for today, and patting
ourselves on the back at how marvelous our market systems are. And
that we should keep on hurling invective at those evil “enviros” who
want to crash the party and drag us all back to the Stone Age.
Perhaps I suffer from a want of sufficient cynicism.
2. Using the State to solve common resource problems?, Oct 12 2007:
How exactly do you transfer commons into private ownership in a fair way, even for easily divided up stuff like land?
Libertarians do not insist that open-access resources (or common
property resources/CPR) be divided up by creating individual property
rights; cooperative ownership via formal agreements or informally
developed practices and customs (such those developed by Maine
lobstermen, English angling clubs, indigenous peoples and Wikipedia and
online communities) may work better at solving the prisoners’ dilemma
issues and are just as acceptable.
But technological advances and greater demand often swamp CPR
regimes, so such regimes remain vulnerable if they are not accorded
legal protection. My understanding of the UK enclosures in this regard
is that they were actually a legislative theft of common property by
the powerful.
Can states play positive roles in solving problems? At least
internally, it is rather clear that the answer is that the state works
best by allowing, and providing judicial mechanisms to enforce, private
transactions, and works least well when it tries to specify detailed
and rigid “solutions” itself – since the government itself never has
perfect information, often plays favorites and once a regulatory regime
is put in place, parties have no ability to work out their differences
directly with each other, but are forever in the position of trying to
influence the state and in adversarial positions vis-a-vis each other.
But states can also play a positive role by disseminating information
and by acting to facilitate deals between various resources users,
particularly in cross-border/multi-state problems.
Elinor Ostrom is the guru of CPR regimes; anyone interested
should look into her fascinating and highly-regarded work, particularly
her seminal Governing the Commons (1990).
[She is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the
National Academy of Sciences, and the American Philosophical Society,
and a recipient of a number of prestigious awards. Her other books
include Rules, Games, and Common-Pool Resources (1994); The Commons in the New Millennium: Challenges and Adaptations (2003); The Samaritan’s Dilemma: The Political Economy of Development Aid (2005); Understanding Institutional Diversity (2005); and Understanding Knowledge as a Commons: From Theory to Practice (2007).]
Here is one link to get readers started: Elinor Ostrom et al.,
Revisiting the Commons: Local Lessons, Global Challenges, Science 9
April 1999: http://conservationcommons.org/media/document/docu-wyycyz.pdf
Technology seems to provide us ability to create property rights regimes in ocean fisheries.
The
stickiest problems are those where the resource is located in a country
where we cannot ourselves create or enforce legal rights and in the
atmosphere, which no one owns and to which all have access.
Unfortunately, many libertarians don’t even want to acknowledge, much
less discuss, these problems. Since they are not confined to any one
country, clearly we need to coordinate with others – for which
purposes our state apparatus cannot be avoided.
Reaching any kind of effective solution for problems of this type
will require much more focussed attention and bridge-building (abroad
and at home), and if libertarians do not want to be part of the
discussion, clearly they will have little influence on the results.
3. Sophomoric optimism?, Oct 16 2007:
Our states are merely one subset of the wide universe of formal and
informal institutions through which we cooperate with one another.
States are not a market, to be sure, but then neither are corporations,
and there is a spectrum of ownership types between the two. We can
study all of these institutions and use that knowledge to direct how we
make use of them. Such study has informed, for example, the deliberate
shifts in policy that have led to the ongoing (yet incomplete)
privatization of the former USSR and of China.
A study of institutions governing common pool resources by guru Elinor Ostrom makes the following point:
“Whether people are able to self-organize and manage CPRs also depends on the broader social setting within which they work. National governments can help or hinder local self-organization. “Higher”
levels of government can facilitate the assembly of users of a CPR in
organizational meetings, provide information that helps identify the
problem and possible solutions, and legitimize and help enforce
agreements reached by local users. National governments can at times,
however, hinder local self-organization by defending rights that lead
to overuse or maintaining that the state has ultimate control over
resources without actually monitoring and enforcing existing
regulations.
“Participants are more likely to adopt effective rules in
macro-regimes that facilitate their efforts than in regimes that ignore
resource problems entirely or that presume that central authorities
must make all decisions.If local authority is not formally recognized by larger regimes, it is difficult for users to establish enforceable rules. “
Elinor Ostrom et al., Revisiting the Commons: Local Lessons, Global Challenges, Science, 04/09/99 http://conservationcommons.org/media/document/docu-wyycyz.pdf
Was von Mises foolish to suggest we can use the state to reform our institutions?
“It is true that where a considerable part of the costs incurred are
external costs from the point of view of the acting individuals or
firms, the economic calculation established by them is manifestly
defective and their results deceptive. But this is not the outcome of
alleged deficiencies inherent in the system of private ownership of the
means of production. It is on the contrary a consequence of
loopholes left in this system. It could be removed by a reform of the
laws concerning liability for damages inflicted and by rescinding the
institutional barriers preventing the full operation of private
ownership.”
http://mises.org/humanaction/chap23sec6.asp
And Cordato, for suggesting that Austrians take particular policy approaches to environmental issues?
“For Austrians then, public policy in the area of the
environment must focus on resolving these conflicts over the use of
resources that define pollution, not on obtaining an ultimately
unobtainable “efficient” allocation of resources. … For Austrians, whose goal is to resolve conflicts, the focus is on clarifying titles to property and rights enforcement.
http://mises.org/daily/1760
Sorry, but I cannot believe that we are condemned always to repeat
all mistakes, despite our rather constant human nature. Rather, as Yandle notes, our very history as a species is about our success in evolving, devising and adopting ways to manage shared problems. http://www.fee.org/publications/the-freeman/article.asp?aid=4064
This is a message of profound optimism, not cynicism — said the fool.
4. Ron Bailey of Reason congratulates Al Gore , Oct 15 2007:
1. You were right last year when you
said that “In the end, the debate over global warming and its obverse,
humanity’s energy future, is a moral issue.”
http://www.reason.com/blog/show/113924.html
2. I share your understanding of the
economics and institutional problem and agree that a straightforward
explanation of these is important for very many.
3. However, you forget what
evolutionary psychology, Ostrom and Yandle have explained to us so well
about how our innate moral sense drives and underpins mankind’s success
as a species by enhancing our ability to cooperate and to overcome
commons issues.
Ostrom: http://conservationcommons.org/media/document/docu-wyycyz.pdf
Yandle: http://www.fee.org/publications/the-freeman/article.asp?aid=4064
Our long history of developed rules and
institutions (informal and formal now overlapping) are based on our
moral sense and the effectiveness of these rules depends critically on
our moral investment in accepting their legitimacy – witness our views
on murder, theft, lying and “not playing by the rules” – and in
voluntarily complying with them.
Our moral sense reinforces our judgments
about when rules/institutions are not working and the need to develop
new ones in response to changing circumstances and new problems. When
we see a problem that we think requires change, it is unavoidable that
we respond the the status quo, the behavior of people within it and the
need for change with a moral sense.
This is simply a part of our
evolutionary endowment. (Of course, other parts of our endowment
accentuate our suspicions of smooth talkers and help us catch free
riders and looters and to guard against threats from outsiders.)
4. Accordingly, while it’s unclear how
deliberate Gore’s talk of “a moral and spiritual challenge” and
“lifting the global consciousness” is or whether this is a
productive approach for some people, I think it is fairly clear that,
in order to build consensus for a solution to the climate commons
problem (and other difficult commons problems) and to ensure that any
agreed solutions are actually implemented, we will need to bring our
moral senses to bear.
In other words, it is RIGHT to worry
about climate change, but no meaningful/effective “solution” can be
reached or implemented unless it is FAIR and the parties involved have
sufficient TRUST (backed by information) in each other.
5. Not Climate Change Welfare, But Capitalism and Free Markets, Jan 22 2008:
[F]ar from “forc[ing] rich countries to become poor”,
figuring out how to manage a global commons like the atmosphere, while
it may have the effect of imposing a cost on the release of carbon, is
basically aimed at privatising externalities, with the intention of
increasing the efficiency of private transactions and net wealth. Climate
change is, of course, just one of a broad range of pervasive problems
that occur when markets encounter resources that are not clearly or
effectively owned or managed. http://mises.org/Community/blogs/tokyotom/archive/2007/09/28/too-many-or-too-few-people-does-the-market-provide-an-answer.aspx
3. Most importantly, while Lockitch correctly diagnoses the illness
– poor countries need to “embrace free markets and private property
rights and attract the investment of profit-seeking entrepreneurs to
create wealth and drive economic growth” – he simply fails to address what wealthy nations SHOULD be doing, if anything, to assist the cure. This,
of course, is the main dodge, because Lockitch fails to own up to the
true difficulties involved in trying to help the developing nations.
Trying to build “soft” infrastructure in the form of rule of
law and property rights (ending kleptocracy and theft of “public”
resources) is tremendously difficult – perhaps a problem that is even
more difficult than the wealthy nations deciding how to share the pain
of GHG reductions (as I noted in comments to a post on Amazonian deforestation here: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/001043lahsen_and_nobre_20.html) Heck,
the wealthy nations have a hard enough time doing the easiest things to
speed development of poorer nations, which is simply to open import
markets by removing domestic tariffs, import restrictions and subsidies.
Rather, it seems that the richer nations have to feed their more
powerful elites first, while hamstringing competition from poorer
nations in products for which they should be able to exploit a
comparative advantage. If Lockitch was truly interested in
helping the poor of developing nations, you’d think he’d note how
enduring rent-seeking at home serves to keep the poorer nations down.
And if the wealthy nations should do something to help
poorer nations, which seems implicit in Lockitch’s analysis (if not
conventional aid, then aid to build soft, governance infrastructure),
then can’t some of those efforts easily dovetail with efforts to
establish carbon pricing in the wealthy countries? Why couldn’t aid
budgets be funded by carbon taxes at home, for example? And can’t
demand for “carbon credits” help to establish incentives to improve
governance infrastructure in poorer nations? In other words,
“mitigation” (efforts to limit climate change) in developed
nations need not conflict with any efforts to help poorer
nations “adapt” to climate change or otherwise become wealthier.
4. Lockitch asserts that the concern of enviros for the world’s
poor is “feigned”, but this is a cheap and unproductive ad hominem –
and one that can easily be turned around. While some enviros may not
understand the institutional sicknesses that hinder development, this
illness has been fed much more by governments and corporations at home
than by enviros, many of who have been involved in the long,
hard effort to build local infrastructure and to protect traditional
private and community property rights.
On the other hand, just what is it that evidences that
Lockitch himself – or other skeptics – have any “real” concern for the
world’s poor? Does the wheel of this concern ever hit the road, or is
it simply spinning noisily, to welcoming nods from domestic special
interests who benefit from the continuation of climate externalities?
A key insight of Austrian economics relating to the environment is that man does not harm the environment per se, but that social
welfare or efficiency problems arise because of interpersonal conflict
associated with irresolvable inefficiencies – inefficiencies that
cannot find a solution in the entrepreneurial workings of the market
process because of institutional defects associated with the
lack of clearly defined or well enforced property rights. (See Roy
Cordato, http://mises.org/daily/1760).
It is both ironic and disappointing that many Austrians and others
similarly minded, rather than focussing on the difficult task of
conflict resolution in the case of the climate, seem to prefer the
emotional rush of conflict itself over analysis and bridge- and
consensus-building. But this is nothing new (and is certainly
tempting, given our tribal nature)(http://mises.org/Community/blogs/tokyotom/archive/2007/12/17/holiday-joy-quot-watermelons-quot-roasting-on-an-open-pyre.aspx).
No one owns the world’s atmosphere, so all are entitled to
their opinions about managing it. And clearly the world continues to
struggle with the rapid exploitation of other unowned, “public” or
poorly defined or protected physical resources, in the face of growing
populations, growing markets and technological advances that lower the
costs of access to the commons. I suggest that rather than ad
hominems, we would be better served by frankly acknowledging problems
of this nature and starting to build shared understandings. The writings of Elinor Ostrom are a good place to start: http://www.conservationcommons.org/media/document/docu-7e8akm.pdf
In honestly engaging on these issues, it is perfectly
appropriate – nay, essential – to be aware of the self-interests of
various participants and to caution against the problems of
rent-seeking, “rent-farming” by politicians, and frequently unaligned
incentives of bureaucracies.
5. Finally, this is a quibble, but Lockitch is wrong to assert thay developing nations need to “industrialize”. What they need to do is to better govern themselves by protecting investments, markets and human rights, and then getting out of the way of their people.
What results will be these countries’ own path, which will naturally
differ from Western industrialization (leapfrogging it in some ways).
6. Rob Bradley cheers on coal, but are all those who want to better manage commons and environmental impacts “Malthusian” idiots, or only in the case of coal?, Feb 5 2009:
Rob Bradley has a new post up at MasterResource, cheering on big (and now “clean”) coal, which has apparently received assurances from the Obama administration – after being bad-mouthed by NASA scientist Jim Hansen, Steven Chu and Obama himself – that, despite pressures from the “Malthusian anti-energy crusade” regarding climate change impacts, the recent massive TVA fly-ash spill and opposition to destructive mountaintop removal practices in Appalachia, coal will remain profitable during Obama’s term and central to US energy supplies. Hooray!
But I wasn’t quite clear on all of Rob’s message, so I asked him a few questions in the comment thread:
Rob, are the John Badens, Terry Andersons, Bruce Yandles, Elinor Ostroms
and others who want to find ways to manage our commons better – by
improving ownership, incentives and pricing signals – also part of a[n
evil] “Malthusian crusade”?
I just wanna make sure I know who to hate.
As for that big fly-ash breach/spill in
Tennessee, I’m glad that you didn’t point out how this was a result of
government ownership of TVA, with the added benefit that costs will be
borne not only by direct and indirect victims, but by taxpayers as
well. No sense in pointing out how government is so often in the way,
particularly if it detracts from our “we hate enviros!” message. Last
thing we ever want to do is to reach a shared understanding with
enviros of the institutional underpinnings of problems, since that
means our funders might lose some of their fairly purchased,
government-given special privileges.
While it’s clear that “free-market” Rob cares little about whether the coal industry continues
commercial activities that shift the environmental costs and risks
(including potential costs arising from GHG emissions) to others,
I forgot to ask Rob whether, as a hearty cheerleader for those poor
coal underdogs, he also supports their position that the government
should subsidize their change in business model by (a) having Uncle Sam pay the bulk of capital costs for IGCC (integrated gas combined cycle plant) [something like $1 billion for the first one with CCS], (b) giving them a further break (reduced royalties) on the sweet deals they already have
for stripping coal from public lands and (c) – now that the federal
government is getting into the busy of running the financial sector –
making sure that power producers that want to use coal have easy access
to credit, by twisting the arms of those uppity Wall Street financiers
who with their fancy new “Carbon Principles” and “Enhanced Due Diligence” seem a bit too reluctant to extend credit for coal-fired power plants.
Here’s hoping Rob weighs in further. I want to make sure I’m not
messing up when I try to distinguish the “white hats” from the “black
hats”. From what I can tell so far, seeking to manipulate government
policy for your own benefit is evil – as long as you’re not a coal
firm – and we call the evil ones “Malthusians”. Right?
7. More stupid from Tierney; this time on “Kuznets curve” and the dynamics of “wealthier and greener”, May 12 2009:
Tierney seems to believe that the Kuznets curve means that greater
wealth magically makes for a cleaner environment. To the contrary, it
is the hard work of people, expressing their desires to protect their
own property and to realize other preferences regarding shared
resources, to increase wealth by finding means (property rights
institutions, litigation and government regulation) to end tragedy of
the commons-type situtations, who improve their environment. That is, working to close externalities leads to both wealthier and greener societies.
(I`ve remarked on the Kuznets curve before; interestingly, conservatives seem to misunderstand it more than liberals.)
So
I tried to offer a more libertarian understanding, which I`ve taken the
liberty of memorializing here (with typo correction and emphasis and
further links added):
Andrew, food for thought on enviro Kuznets:
http://mises.org/Community/blogs/tokyotom/search.aspx?q=kuznets
http://mises.org/Community/blogs/tokyotom/archive/2008/01/22/poor-countries-need-capitalism-not-climate-change-welfare.aspx
http://mises.org/Community/blogs/tokyotom/archive/2007/09/27/too-many-or-too-few-people-does-the-market-provide-an-answer.aspx
Unfortunately, Tierney simply fails to understand that the enviro
Kuznets curve does not tell us that problems relating to environmental
cost-shifting or to the over-exploitation of unowned commons are best
resolved by ignoring them and simply hoping for the best. Rather, it
affirms that as people become more wealthy, they care more about
protecting the environment and put more elbow grease into achieving
improvements – via improved property rights protection, improved
information disclosure, greater consumer pressure and even through
greater regulation (which is the path the West has largely followed),
and reaching agreements with others sharing the relevant resource).
In other words, the work relating to global, regional and various
national commons (atmosphere, seas, forests, water, etc.) is still
ahead of us. Libertarians can advocate for property rights (and
privatization of public lands) as ways to have a more efficient (and
just) path on the curve, or they provide implicit support for powerful
and dirty industries by standing by and waiting until citizen pressure
groups force government to act in heavy-handed ways.
8. Libertarians to lefty-enviros: without community-based property rights, sustainable fisheries are impossible, May 11 2009:
Elinor Ostrom has
also been a leader in documenting the ways that a community of users
(NOT the dread and sloppily misused “soc-ial-ism”) may effectively
manage a shared resource.
Readers might be interested in the World Bank`s Oct 2008 report, “The Sunken Billions; The Economic Justification for Fisheries Reform”.
With support from the World Bank, PERC is in the middle of hosting a conference
on approaches to sustainable fisheries (and on ending the massive
over-harvesting and wasted subsidies and mal-investment under current
regulatory approaches).
I also urge readers to look at what the organization Defying Ocean’s End (co-founded by Conservation International, The Nature Conservancy, Natural Resources Defense Council, The Ocean Conservancy, Wildlife Conservation Society, The World Conservation Union, and World Wildlife Fund) has to say about protecting fish:
“Most of the solutions that have been
implemented or proposed to fix the world’s fisheries center on
command-and-control measures: regulators or courts telling fishermen
how to fish through the imposition of controls on effort (e.g., fishing
vessel length, engine horsepower, gear restrictions, etc.).
Prescriptions like these work against strong economic incentives for
maximizing catch, which are not addressed by such measures, and are of
course usually resisted by fishermen. Often, prescriptions create
incentives for “work-arounds” and set up a cat-and-mouse game between
fishermen and regulators – for example, if regulators impose a
restriction on vessel size, fishermen may purchase two vessels to
maintain high catch levels.
“As in most natural resource
problems, more effective solutions will address the fundamental drivers
of unsustainable fisheries. In this case, the key necessary reform will
be to designate secure catch privileges. It is important to understand
that such privileges can be allocated to different kinds of entities in
different ways, and indeed, they should be tailored to specific
fisheries and communities to fit with local customs, traditions,
values, and social structure.”
I`ve linked a number of my other posts on fisheries here.
9. The tragedy of the panicked enviro II; understanding the “tragedy of the commons”, Aug 29 2009:
Sure,
the Western
world has managed to create many environmental problems, but we`ve
largely cleaned up our own messes, haven`t we? While it by no means
excuses our own faults, far worse environmental problems have been
created and are still stewing in Russia and other state-directed
economies, and it`s no coincidence that the vast pollution being
created in China and India are tied to governement-owned enterprise and
an inability of injured people to sue for damages or to stop harmful
activities. And the great waves of extinctions created as man spread
around the globe tens of thousands of years ago can hardly be laid at
the foot of either the Western world or of private property rights (nor
can the collapse of earlier civilizations).
The
“tragedy of the commons” is NOT a “simplistic market morality”, but a
description of cooperation problems and incentives relating to shared,
open-access resources. The tragedy of the commons and problems of
cooperation – and theft – are not even limited to mankind, but permeate
nature. This perceptive article by Bruce Yandle touches on competition
in nature, and links the ascendance of man to our evolution of
relatively enhanced cooperation:
http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/the-commons-tragedy-or-triumph/
The
“tragedy of the commons” paradigm is useful to analyze, but the
paradigm doesn`t “seek to moderate” anything, and is just as useful in
looking at the ways Western nations still contribute to environmental
problems around the world (as I point out here:
http://mises.org/Community/blogs/tokyotom/archive/2007/09/28/too-many-or-too-few-people-does-the-market-provide-an-answer.aspx) as it is in examining:
– environmental devastation in Haiti (which has little or no property rights, and vast free-for-all “government” holdings),
–
deforestation in Indonesia and the Amazon:
http://mises.org/Community/blogs/tokyotom/archive/2009/05/24/capitalism-the-destructive-exploitation-of-the-amazon-and-the-tragedy-of-the-government-owned-commons.aspx,
– pollution in China: http://mises.org/Community/blogs/tokyotom/search.aspx?q=china, and
–
crashing fisheries around the world as a result of government of marine
resources (producing free-for-alls and fleet subsidies) and a
free-for-all for other unowned or unprotected resources:
http://mises.org/Community/blogs/tokyotom/search.aspx?q=fish.
You
say: “The rate of exploitation and the decline
of resources, water, energy, fisheries, soil, minerals, etc., all
occured under a free market, private property paradigm.” This is
clearly demonstrably wrong, and draws entirely the wrong lessons. While
private property is certainly no panacea, neither are they what is
wrong. Very often, is is governments that have been and are wrong,
though there is certainly some learning going on.
While
Garrett Hardin`s “The Tragedy of the Commons” certainly represents a
hypothetical situation, it is actually a very powerful analytical tool
for understanding and fashioning solutions to countless “real life”
problems. See Elinor Ostrom et al., Revisiting the Commons: Local Lessons, Global Challenges, Science, 04/09/99 http://conservationcommons.org/media/document/docu-wyycyz.pdf
“In real life,
corporations own, or vie to own, resources or access to them for the
purpose of extraction and profit and they seek to maximize profits
through economies of scale, that is industrial extraction methods,
drift netting, blowing up mountains, tossing mining waste into clear,
pristine lakes.“
What
you describe here is a conflict between preferences over how resources
are used. Do you prefer a free-for-all, or a situation where those who
use a resource can protect it, negotiate with others who wish to see
other values preserved, and who are responsible for negative
consequences caused to others (not always a part of some property
rights systems), or perhaps a situation where governments make all
resource exploitation decisions?”
“The money is in the resource and when the resource is
exhausted they will move on to the next one.”
The
money is never in the “resource”, but in the ways that people can use
it or otherwise value it (and of course people also value pristine
environments).
10. Tragedy of the panicked enviro III: learning from Elinor Ostrom about cooperative action, Aug 29 2009:
Let me add some further nuance to Mr. Worstall`s comment by saying
that Hardin`s fertile observations have fuelled extensive further
research on common property problems, with Elinor Ostrom being recognized as a leading light.
Here is one general bibliography on commons research: http://www.indiana.edu/~workshop/wsl/tragedy.htm
Ostrom
has refined Hardin`s work in the following way (quoting from a review
of Ostrom`s 1990 ground-breaking and extensively researched book, GOVERNING THE COMMONS, The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action):
Ostrom uses the term “common pool resources” to denote natural
resources used by many individuals in common, such as fisheries,
groundwater basins, and irrigation systems. Such resources have long
been subject to overexploitation and misuse by individuals acting in
their own best interests. Conventional solutions typically involve
either centralized governmental regulation or privatization of the
resource. But, according to Ostrom, there is a third approach to
resolving the problem of the commons: the design of durable cooperative
institutions that are organized and governed by the resource users
themselves.
“The central question in this
study,” she writes, “is how a group of principals who are in an
interdependent situation can organize and govern themselves to obtain
continuing joint benefits when all face temptations to free-ride,
shirk, or otherwise act opportunistically.”
The
heart of this study is an in-depth analysis of several long-standing
and viable common property regimes, including Swiss grazing pastures,
Japanese forests, and irrigation systems in Spain and the Philippines.
Although Ostrom insists that each of these situations must be evaluated
on its own terms, she delineates a set of eight “design principles”
common to each of the cases. These include clearly defined boundaries,
monitors who are either resource users or accountable to them,
graduated sanctions, and mechanisms dominated by the users themselves
to resolve conflicts and to alter the rules. The challenge, she
observes, is to foster contingent self-commitment among the members ….
Throughout the book, she stresses the dangers of overly
generalized theories of collective action, particularly when used
“metaphorically” as the foundation for public policy. The three
dominant models — the tragedy of the commons, the prisoners’s dilemma,
and the logic of collective action — are all inadequate, she says, for
they are based on the free-rider problem where individual, rational,
resource users act against the best interest of the users collectively.
These models are not necessarily wrong, Ostrom states, rather the
conditions under which they hold are very particular. They apply only
when the many, independently acting individuals involved have high
discount rates and little mutual trust, no capacity to communicate or
to enter into binding agreements, and when they do not arrange for
monitoring and enforcing mechanisms to avoid overinvestment and overuse.
Ostrom
concludes that “if this study does nothing more than shatter the
convictions of many policy analysts that the only way to solve common
pool resource problems is for external authorities to impose full
private property rights or centralized regulation, it will have
accomplished one major purpose.”
A
profile of Ostrom, who is a member of the National Academies of Science
and and Editor of its Proceedings, is here:
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1748208
Her work can be found here: http://scholar.google.co.jp/scholar?q=Ostrom,+Elinor&hl=en&btnG=Search and
here: http://de.scientificcommons.org/elinor_ostrom
One
thing worth noting is that the historical and ongoing records are rife
with examples – such as our crashing local fisheries – where government
intervention has done more harm than good. In these cases and in
others, Ostrom introduces an analytical approach that is acceptable
widely across the political spectrum, even if differences in opinion
will remain. See, for example, this discussion at libertarian-leaning
George Mason U: http://www.theihs.org/bunnygame/
TokyoTom
fundamentalist: “I love the responses from the GW hysteria crowd.
They have nothing to offer but ad hominem attacks and appeals to
authority.”
Am I excluded from the “hysteria” crowd, Roger? Because if I`m in,
you seem to have entirely missed my post, and my point, as to the
consistency of your arguments with Austrian principles and the
effectiveness of approaches like yours in dealing with the rest of the
world – including all of the deluded and others who are engaged in bad
faith.
Published: October 30, 2009 9:44 AM
Stephan Kinsella
[Note: this is the comment to which I responded with the remarks copied on my preceding post]
“Tokyo” asked me to respond to his post but it’s so rambling I am
not sure what to respond to. To me this is very simple. I think we are
in an interglacial period. It’s going to start getting cooler
eventually, unless by then we have enough technology and freedom (no
offense, Tokyo) to stop it. If there is global warming maybe it can
delay the coming ice age by a few centuries.
If there were really global warming why not just use “nuclear
winter” to cool things down? You don’t see the envirotards advocating that! 🙂 (see Greenpeace to advocate nuking the earth?)
In any event as I see it there are several issues. Is it warming?
Can we know it? Do we know it? Are we causing it? Can we stop it?
Should we stop it?
It seem to me we do not know that it’s warming; if it is, it’s
probably not caused by Man; and if it is, there’s probably nothing we
can do to stop it except effectively destroy mankind; there’s no reason
to stop it since it won’t even be all bad, and in fact would be overall
good. I do not trust the envirotards, who hate industrialism and love
the state, and seek anything to stop capitalism and to give the state
an excuse to increase regulations and taxes; why anyone thinks these
watermelons really know what the temperature will be in 10, 100, 1000
years, when we can’t even get accurate weather forecasts a week out, is
beyond me.
That said, I’ll take the watermelons seriously when they start
advocating nuclear power. Until then, they reveal themselves to be
anti-industry, anti-man, techo-illiterates. (See Green nukes; Nuclear spring?.)
Published: October 30, 2009 10:03 AM
TokyoTom
[my prior version ran off without my permission; this is a re-draft]
It seems like I can lead a horse to water, but I can`t make him think,
We all have our own maps of reality and our own calculus as to what
government policies are desirable and when, but as for me, the status
quo needs changing, and the desire of a wide range of people – be they
deluded, evil, conniving or whatnot – to do something on the climate
front seems like a great opportunity to get freedom-enhancing measures
on the table and to achieve some of MY preferences, chiefly because
they help to advance the professed green agenda. [To clarify, I didn`t mean that I want to advance “the green agenda”, but that the pro-freedom policy suggestions I have raised should be attainable because greens and others might see that they also serve THEIR agendas.]
I see no reason to sit at home or simply scoff or fling poo from the
sidelines, and let what I see as a bad situation get worse. There`s
very little in that for practically anyone here – except of course
those who like coal pollution, public utilities, corporate income
taxes, big ag corporate welfare, political fights over government-owned
resources, energy subsidies and over-regulation, etc. (and those folks
aren`t sitting at home, believe me).
I can keep on questioning everyone`s sanity or bona fides, or I can
argue strongly for BETTER policies, that advance shared aims.
Does Austrian thinking simply lack a practical political arm, other
than those few who have signed up to support special interests?
Ramblin` Tom
Published: October 30, 2009 11:51 AM
TokyoTom
Stephan, if I may, I am appalled and offended by your shallow and
fundamentally dishonest engagement here. That there are a string of
others who have preceded you in this regard is no excuse.
You: (i) post without significant comment a one-page letter from a
scientist – as if the letter itself is vindication, victory or a
roadmap for how we should seek to engage the views and preferences of
others,
(ii) refuse to answer my straightforward questions (both above and
at my cross-linked post, which you visited) on how we engage others in
the very active ongoing political debate, in a manner that actually
defends and advances our policy agenda, and (putting aside the
insulting and disingenuous “Tokyo asked me to respond” and “it’s so
rambling I am not sure what to respond to”); and
(iii) then proceed to present your own view of the science, the
motives and sanity “watermelons” (as if they`re running the show), a
few helpful, free-market libertarian “solutions”, like open-air
explosion of nuclear weapons to bring about a “nuclear winter” effect!
And my attempt to bring your focus back to the question of how we
actually deal with others in the POLITICAL bargaining that is, after
all, underway is met with silence – other than your faithful report
back from your trusty climate physicist expert policy guru friend about
…. science (all being essentially irrelevant to my question, not
merely the cute little folksy demonstration about how the troubling
melting and thinning of Antarctic ice sheets actually now underway
simply CAN`T be occurring, but also a further failure to address the
very rapid ocean acidification our CO2 emissions are producing)!
Maybe it`s me, but I find this type of insincere and shallow
engagement on such a serious issue to be a shameful discredit to the
Mises Blog (even if it does cater to those who prefer to think that the
big to do about climate – which may very well result in a mass of
ill-considered, costly and counterproductive
legislation – is really groundless and so can simply be ignored, aside from a bit of internal fulminations here).
If you are not actually interested in discussing policy on a serious issue, then consider refraining from posting on it.
Maybe it`s not my position to expect better, but I do.
Sincerely,
Tom
Roy Cordato (linked at my name) said this:
“The starting point for all Austrian welfare economics is the goal
seeking individual and the ability of actors to formulate and execute
plans within the context of their goals. … [S]ocial welfare or
efficiency problems arise because of interpersonal conflict. [C] that
similarly cannot be resolved by the market process, gives rise to
catallactic inefficiency by preventing useful information from being
captured by prices.”
“Environmental problems are brought to light as striking at the
heart of the efficiency problem as typically seen by Austrians, that
is, they generate human conflict and disrupt inter- and intra-personal
plan formulation and execution.”
“The focus of the Austrian approach to environmental economics is
conflict resolution. The purpose of focusing on issues related to
property rights is to describe the source of the conflict and to
identify possible ways of resolving it.”
“If a pollution problem exists then its solution must be found in
either a clearer definition of property rights to the relevant
resources or in the stricter enforcement of rights that already exist.
This has been the approach taken to environmental problems by nearly
all Austrians who have addressed these kinds of issues (see Mises 1998;
Rothbard 1982; Lewin 1982; Cordato 1997). This shifts the perspective
on pollution from one of “market failure” where the free market is seen
as failing to generate an efficient outcome, to legal failure where the
market process is prevented from proceeding efficiently because the
necessary institutional framework, clearly defined and enforced
property rights, is not in place.”
Published: October 31, 2009 1:00 PM
TokyoTom
Bala:
“Did rising temperatures cause an increase in atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration”.
This is a great, basic question; I`d love to answer it (actually, I
already did, though a bit indirectly), but you see, I`m one of the
nasty obfuscating members of the socialist hysterical crowd, so I
really should defer to others here who have better ideological and
scientific stature here (and who hate ad hominems and love reason),
such as fundamentalist, or perhaps even our confident lead poster,
Stephan Kinsella (who has nothing to offer on the question of how
libertarians should engage with others on the political front), or even
our humble physicist climate system authority, Dr. Hayden.
Gentlemen, take it away.
Published: October 31, 2009 11:31 AM
TokyoTom
I`m sorry I don`t have time now to respond in more detail to those
who have commented in response to mine, but let me note that not one of
you has troubled to actually respond to my challenge, which was based
on Austrian concepts of conflict resolution, understanding of
rent-seeking embedded in the status quo, and the recognition that the
present debate on climate, energy and environmental issues presents
opportunities to actually advance an Austrian agenda.
In my view, we can either try to improve our lot, by seeking items
such as those I laid out previously or condemn ourselves to irrelevancy
by standing by and letting the big boys and the Baptists in their
coalition hammer out something worse from our Congresscritters.
For this, the correctness of our own views of climate science
matters little – nothing, in fact, unless we are willing to DO
something about it, by engaging with OTHERS who have DIFFERENT views.
For those who have too much trouble remembering the legal/regulatory changes that I suggested, here they are:
[pro-freedom regulatory changes might include:
* accelerating cleaner power investments by eliminating corporate
income taxes or allowing immediate amortization of capital investment,
* eliminating antitrust immunity for public utility monopolies (to
allow consumer choice, peak pricing and “smart metering” that will
rapidly push efficiency gains),
* ending Clean Air Act handouts to the worst utilities (or otherwise
unwinding burdensome regulations and moving to lighter and more
common-law dependent approaches),
* ending energy subsidies generally (including federal liability caps for nuclear power (and allowing states to license),
* speeding economic growth and adaptation in the poorer countries most
threatened by climate change by rolling back domestic agricultural
corporate welfare programs (ethanol and sugar), and
* if there is to be any type of carbon pricing at all, insisting that
it is a per capita, fully-rebated carbon tax (puts the revenues in the
hands of those with the best claim to it, eliminates regressive impact
and price volatility, least new bureaucracy, most transparent, and
least susceptible to pork).
Other policy changes could also be put on the table, such as an
insistence that government resource management be improved by requiring
that half of all royalties be rebated to citizens (with a slice to the
administering agency).]
Many others come to mind.
Well, what`s it going to be? Relevancy, or a tribal exercise in disengaged and smug self-satisfaction?
Published: October 31, 2009 12:37 PM
TokyoTom
1. Christopher and mpolzkill:
Thanks for the favor of your comments.
I was asking if Austrians never seek to practically engage others on
questions of policy; the first of you brings up Ron Paul, but one man
is not a policy, nor are his sole efforts a policy program; the other
of you suggests succession from the U, which is hardly an effort at
pragmatic engagement with anybody over a particular issue. (BTW, here
is Ron Paul`s climate program.)
I can see some engagement by libertarians on this issue, but such
seeds either (i) die when they fall on the rocky ground of the Mises
Blog or (ii) represent work by people paid to criticize one side of the
debate, and consistently ignore problems with the definitely
non-libertarian status quo.
Why libertarians do not see any opportunity here for a positive
agenda? Do they prefer to be taken as implicit supporters of the
government interventions that underlie most enviros` complaints?
2. fundamentalist:
“I don’t see anyone doing that except the GW hysterical crowd.
Honest scientists like Hayden try to present evidence and reason so
that we can have a real debate, and the hysterical crowd flings poo
from the sidelines.”
Thanks for your direct comment (even as you lace it and others with
ad homs), but can`t you see you also are missing my point? Are you NOT
interested in trying to cut deals that would, say:
* accelerate cleaner power investments by eliminating corporate
income taxes or allowing immediate amortization of capital investment,
* eliminate antitrust immunity for public utility monopolies (to allow
consumer choice, peak pricing and “smart metering” that will rapidly
push efficiency gains),
* end Clean Air Act handouts to the worst utilities (or otherwise
unwinding burdensome regulations and moving to lighter and more
common-law dependent approaches),
* end energy subsidies generally (including federal liability caps for nuclear power (and allowing states to license),
* speed economic growth and adaptation in the poorer countries most
threatened by climate change by rolling back domestic agricultural
corporate welfare programs (ethanol and sugar),
* insist that government resource management be improved by requiring that half of all royalties be rebated to citizens,
* end federal subsidies to development on barrier islands, etc. or
* improve adaptability by deregulating and privatizing roads and other “public” infrastructure?
Or is it more productive to NOT deal with those whom you hate, and
stand by while special interests cut deals that widen and deepen the
federal trough?
TT
Published: November 1, 2009 2:21 AM
TokyoTom
Allow me to outline here a few responses to the arguments raised by
Dr. Hayden, even as I do not pretend to be an expert (and, to be
pedantic, even though they are largely irrelevant to the question of
whether Austrians wish to take advantage of the opportunity presented
by the many scientists and others who have differing views, to roll
back alot of costly, counterproductive and unfair regulation).
1. Models: Dr. Hayden disingenuously casts aside what modern physics
tells us about how God plays dice with the universe (via random,
unpredictible behavior throughout the universe), and the limits of
human knowledge (including the ability to measure all inputs affecting
climate, including all of our own), and essentially asks us to wait
until our knowledge is perfect, and our ability to capture and
number-crunch all information relevant to the Earth`s climate
(including changing solar and cosmic ray inputs and ocean behavior)
before any of us, or our imperfect governments, can take any action on
climate.
Physical and practical impossibility aside, is this how any human or
any human organization structures its decisions? Narrowly, Dr. Hayden
is of course right that “the science is not settled”, but so what?
2. Was there a tipping point 300 million years ago (or whenever it was when CO2 levels reached 8000 ppm) ?
Dr. Hayden plays with language, suggesting that a “tipping point” means
something irreversible over hundreds of millions of years, when it`s
very clear that there have in the past been numerous abrupt changes in
climate (some taking place in as little as a few years, with a general
return to prior values sometimes taking very long periods of time) and
that scientists today are talking about tipping points that may be reached in human lifetimes.
Will we lose all mountain glaciers? Will the Arctic become ice-free in
winter? Will thawing release sufficient methane from tundras and seabed
clathrates to push the climate even more forcibly than CO2? Are we set
to lose glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, regardless of what we do?
Will we dry out the Amazon basin, and interrupt the Asian monsoon?
There is plenty of concern and evidence that these things are real
possibilities.
3. “Global-warming alarmists tell us that the rising CO2 concentration is (A) anthropogenic and (B) leading to global warming.”
But you never tell us whether you, too, Dr. Hayden, are an
“alarmist”. Further down you acknowledge that “Nobody doubts that CO2
has some greenhouse effect” admitting (B) (though not that it may be
the chief factor), but as far as (A) goes, you only acknowledge that
“CO2 concentration is increasing”. Care to make yourself an alarmist by
admitting what cannot be denied – that man is responsible for rising
CO2 concentrations? Or you prefer play with laymen`s ignorance by
irresponsibly suggesting that rising CO2 is now due to warming oceans
and not man`s activities?
– “CO2 concentration has risen and fallen in the past with no help from mankind.”
Yes, but what relevance is this now, when man is undeniably not simply “helping” but clearly responsible?
– “The present rise began in the 1700s, long before humans could have made a meaningful contribution.”
So? Does the fact that CO2 fluctuates naturally do to things other
than man`s activities mean humans` massive releases of CO2 have NOT
made a “meaningful contribution”? It`s very clear that the Industrial Revolution caused a dramatic rise in CO2. Surely you don`t disagree?
– “Alarmists have failed to ask, let alone answer, what the CO2
level would be today if we had never burned any fuels. They simply
assume that it would be the “pre-industrial” value.”
“Alarmists” of course is simply an unhelpful ad hom; and as for the rest, concerned scientists and laymen clearly note how CO2 has fluctuated prior to the Industrial Revolution.
There undoubtedly many clueless laymen, just as there are some
clueless scientists, so your sweeping statement may be narrowly
accurate.
But in the big picture, it is clear that man has had a drastic
impact on CO2 levels – so what, precisely, is your point, except to
confuse the issue?
– “The solubility of CO2 in water decreases as water warms, and
increases as water cools. The warming of the earth since the Little Ice
Age has thus caused the oceans to emit CO2 into the atmosphere.”
Sure, but this doesn`t mean man hasn`t been the dominant contributor to atmospheric CO2.
Further, of course, warming oceans CEASED to release CO2 at the
point that atmospheric CO2 started to make the oceans more acidic.
– “The historical record shows that climate changes precede CO2
changes. How, then, can one conclude that CO2 is responsible for the
current warming?”
The lag in the historical record BEFORE man simply shows that CO2,
which has an acknowledged warming effect, was a warming reinforcer and
not an initiator. This does NOT, of course, suggest that massive CO2
releases by man magically have NO effect.
4. Assuming that we ARE changing climate, is that a bad thing?
– “A warmer world is a better world.” Maybe, but are there NO costs,
losses or damages in moving to one? And do those people and communities
who bear these costs or kinda like things as they are have any choice,
much less defendable property rights?
– “The higher the CO2 levels, the more vibrant is the biosphere, as
numerous experiments in greenhouses have shown. … Those huge
dinosaurs could not exist anywhere on the earth today because the land
is not productive enough. CO2 is plant food, pure and simple.”
I see; this is not a question of fossil fuel interests homesteading
the sky (or being given license by govt) and so being entitled to shift
risks and costs on us, but them beneficiently bestowing gifts on
mankind – or dinosaurs, as Dr. Hayden may prefer! Wonderful gifts that
cannot be returned for centuries or millenia! Yippee!
[This is only scratching the surface of the letter, but I`m afraid I need to run for now.]
Published: November 1, 2009 4:51 AM
TokyoTom [Note: my original post contained some bolding that went haywire and bolded most of the post; I`ve fixed that.]
Okay, here`s a few more unconsidered thoughts to show how hysterical
I am, am hooked on religion, hate mankind, [want to] return us to the Middle Ages
and otherwise take over the world:
– “Look at weather-related death rates in winter and in summer, and the case is overwhelming that warmer is better.”
Sure, for If only it were so simple. The increase in AVERAGE global
temps that we`ve experienced so far has meant little warming of the
oceans (a vast thermal sink), and has shown up at higher latitudes,
where we have seen a very marked warming and ongoing thawing, a shift
of tropic zones away from the equator, disruption of rainfall patterns
and stress on tropical ecosystems; all of this is considered to be just
the beginning of a wide range of climate effects that have not yet been
fully manifested for GHG and albedo changes so far,. much less to
further increases in GHGs.
– “CO2 is plant food, pure and simple.”
It IS a “pure and simple” plant food, but your rhetoric implies much
more – essentially that CO2 is NOTHING BUT plant food, and large
releases of it have no effect on climate. And this, as you well know,
is NOT a “pure and simple” matter.
– “CO2 is not pollution by any reasonable definition.”
You mean not by your reasonable definition, or under
historical standards. But what IS “pollution”, but a social construct
to describe the outputs of human activity that some of us have found to
be damaging to our persons, property or other things that we value?
Were CFCs released by refrigeration equipment “pollution” before we
discovered that they damage the ozone layer?
Scientists may be qualified to measure particular outputs and their
consequences, but otherwise have no special insights into what others
value.
– “A warmer world begets more precipitation.”
Sure, as warmer air generally holds more water – which in turn has a
warming effect, let`s not forget. But as for the water itself, climate
change leads to more severe rain events in some places but to droughts
in others. And let`s not forget that a warmer world means that mountain
snows don`t last until spring and summer as they once did, leaving
streams and forests drier, and adversely affecting agriculture that
relies on such water.
– “All computer models predict a smaller temperature gradient
between the poles and the equator. Necessarily, this would mean fewer
and less violent storms.”
Not so fast; this doesn`t hold for rain events or tornadoes.
Further, independent paths of research indicate that while the North
Atlantic may end up with fewer hurricanes, warming is likely to make them more intense.
– How, pray, will a putative few degrees of warming melt all the ice
and inundate Florida, as is claimed by the warming alarmists?
First, note again the Dr.`s use of a strawman; no one is expect an
imminent melt of “ALL” the ice. But significant melting and thinning of
coastal ice IS occurring, and not merely on the West Antactic
peninsula, which the good Dr. would realize if he`d trouble himself to
compare his simple mental model, of reality with FACTS. As previously
noted, coast ice sheets are plugs that slow the flow of glaciers from
the interior. As these plugs are removed, the glaciers flow more
quickly, via that exotic phenomenon we call “gravity”. I`ve already
addressed this above, with links.
– “If the waters around it warm up, they create more precipitation.”
Yes, but does the new precipitation balance the ice being melted?
Actual, detailed observations tell us that, despite your absolute
certainty, that we are seeing increasing net mass losses far inland,
not merely in Greenland but also in Antarctica. Your religious-like
faith in your own superior understanding doesn`t make the facts go away.
– “The ocean’s pH is not rising. It is falling, ever so slightly.
Obviously your respondent has not the faintest clue as to how pH is
defined. (BTW, the oceans are basic, not acidic.)”
Yes, the good Dr. catches my mistake – pH is falling rather
remarkably (from basic towards acidic) – but he too hastily skates past
the main point, which is that this is due to increased atmospheric
levels of CO2, which prove that the oceans are NOT actually releasing
CO2 (or they`d be becoming more basic).
I provided links in this last year here:
http://blog.mises.org/archives/007931.asp#c192563
Here`s more:
http://www.scienceprogress.org/2008/06/our-dying-oceans/
http://docs.google.com/gview?a=v&q=cache:y_W6vseUrykJ:www.tos.org/oceanography/issues/issue_archive/issue_pdfs/20_2/20.2_caldeira.pdf+caldeira+ocean+ph&hl=en&gl=jp&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESgEEoFLf7xd9QTyol2TYYmXKPxXFqMq5Nr1IPdGd_yEbV3zIxPi-4Rmhb6d-IQ-r4BPwBqzyhF6GZQw_ka1Eh3Ynn0lYlP7p974IYMHIdLMVE90nWJ81GHAfcdTrUJTNk7W8Man&sig=AFQjCNGg6Idq6GQ5gyrddlXRD8R98NQ_dQ
From the Plymouth Marine Laboratory (UK) :
“Until recently, it was believed that the oceans contained so much
disolved carbonate and bicarbonate ions that any extra would have
little effect. In fact this absorbtion was generally acknowledged a
valuable process in protecting the planet from the worst effects of
rising temperatures and climate change. However, in 2003 a paper was
published in Nature (vol 425) which suggested that the increases in
atmospheric CO2, occurring over the last 200 years, has actually
increased the acidity of the oceans by 0.1 of a pH unit.The pH scale is logarithmic and this change represents a 30% increase in the concentration of H+ ions.
“However, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have been
higher during previous times in Earths history and these high CO2
periods didn’t cause ocean pH to change. The difference now is that the
rate at which CO2 concentrations are increasing, is 100 times greater
than the natural fluctuations seen over recent millennia. Consequently,
the processes that ultimately balance the carbon cycle are unable to
react quickly enough and ocean pH is affected. About half of all
released CO2 is absorbed by the oceans but even if we stop all
emmissions today, the CO2 already in the atmosphere has been predicted
to decrease ocean pH by a further 0.5 unit.”
From
Wikipedia”>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification”>Wikipedia:
“Dissolving CO2 in seawater also increases the hydrogen ion (H+)
concentration in the ocean, and thus decreases ocean pH. Caldeira and
Wickett (2003)[1] placed the rate and magnitude of modern ocean
acidification changes in the context of probable historical changes
during the last 300 million years.
Since the industrial revolution began, it is estimated that
surface ocean pH has dropped by slightly less than 0.1 units (on the
logarithmic scale of pH; approximately a 25% increase in H+), and it is
estimated that it will drop by a further 0.3 to 0.5 units by 2100 as
the oceans absorb more anthropogenic CO2.[1][2][9] These changes are
predicted to continue rapidly as the oceans take up more anthropogenic
CO2 from the atmosphere, the degree of change to ocean chemistry, for
example ocean pH, will depend on the mitigation and emissions pathways
society takes.[10] Note that, although the ocean is acidifying, its pH
is still greater than 7 (that of neutral water), so the ocean could
also be described as becoming less basic.”
– “The term global warming has given way to the term climate
change, because the former is not supported by the data. The latter
term, climate change, admits of all kinds of illogical attributions. If
it warms up, that’s climate change. If it cools down, ditto. Any change
whatsoever can be said by alarmists to be proof of climate change.”
Wonderful observation, except for the fact that IT`S WRONG; the
change instead being deliberately led by Republicans; leading
Republican pollster/ spinmeister Frank Luntz in 2002 pushed Republicans
to move the public discussion away from “global warming” to “climate
change”, because, as Luntz wrote,
“’Climate change’ is less frightening than ‘global warming.’
… While global warming has catastrophic connotations attached to it,
climate change suggests a more controllable and less emotional
challenge”.
Of course there IS the inconvenient fact that “climate change” is
actually more accurate than simple “global warming”, but who cares
about accuracy anyway, right Dr.?
– “the earth has handily survived many millions of years when CO2
levels were MUCH higher than at present, without passing the dreaded
tipping point.”
I already addressed above the point that while the Dr. seems to
what to recreate the Cretaceous, the better for dinosaurs, most of us
seem rather to like the Earth that we actually inherited and that the
rest of current Creation is adapted for. He is obviously a physicist
and not a biologist, and doesn`t seem to give any thought to the
rapidity of the scale at which we are conducting our little
terraforming experiment, and te challenges the pace of those changes
are posing to ecosystems.
– “To put it fairly but bluntly, the global-warming alarmists
have relied on a pathetic version of science in which computer models
take precedence over data, and numerical averages of computer outputs
are believed to be able to predict the future climate. It would be a
travesty if the EPA were to countenance such nonsense.”
To put it bluntly, this is largely rubbish; there is a tremendous
and growing amount of climate change DATA. You just make it your habit
not to let facts get in the way of your own opinions. I would be a
travesty if we continue to countenance posts such as yours, questions
of relevance to Austrian purposes aside.
– “I don’t do politics”
Fine; I can see why that would not be your forte. But what`s very
puzzling is that you seem to think that climate science IS your forte,
when all you`ve show is a shocking level of arrogant ignorance.
– “I don’t pretend to be an economic theorist.”
And on a blog dedicated to Austrian economists, just why, one
wonders, do the “giants” in our Mises world keep filling the Blog pages
with post such as this, which are, on their very face, IRRELEVANT, to
the question of how Austrians wish to address the preferences of other,
the misuses of government and the management of unowned common
resources.
– “he only difference between the Republicans and the Democrats
is, in practical terms, their rhetoric. I don’t pretend to be an
economic theorist.
– “But the notion that we can run an industrialized giant on
chicken manure and sunbeams doesn’t even pass the giggle test. Except
in Washington.”
At long last, you say something something intelligible. Except
Washington spends trillions on nonsense at the drop of a hat, if you
haven`t noticed recent events.
Published: November 1, 2009 10:02 AM
TokyoTom
Sorry if I`ve been a bit intemperate; that I`m rushed doesn`t excuse it.
Dr. Hayden, you are entirely welcome to your own opinion and your
own mental map of reality, but not to your own facts. As to your
opinion and mental map, they are by your own admittance uninformed as
to matters of economics and political science, but I must confess that
I find your understanding of climate science to be seriously wanting.
Given these, I fail to see what you offer here, other than a
convenient, if very thin, cover for others here who don`t want to
think, or to fight to make the world (or our own government) better.
Sincerely,
Tom
Published: November 1, 2009 10:11 AM
TokyoTom
Bala, I appreciate your polite persistence; I`m sorry I haven`t responded yet, but I`ll get to you.
Please note that my time is both limited and my own (though indeed
others have claims on it), and I have no obligation to spend any of it
responding to your importunings regarding climate science, which are
now shading into impertinence.
Feel free to draw whatever conclusions you wish, but a fair reader might note that:
– my priorities may (unsurprisingly) differ from yours,
– my chief points (and Austrian principles as to how to engage with others) have nothing to do with climate science per se,
– I explicitly make no pretense of being a scientist or climate expert, and
– in any case, there is no simple course to understanding reality; we
are all forced to make decisions as to how much energy to devote to
puzzling things out on our own (and overcoming what we know of our own
subconscious cognitive filters) versus outsourcing this effort to
others (by accepting things without deliberation, “on faith” as it
were).
Others who have been around longer will know that I`ve also devoted
what they might consider an unreasonable amount of my time over the
past few years, “hysterical” trying to help others work through climate
science (and policy) issues.
TT
Published: November 1, 2009 8:46 PM
TokyoTom
mpolzkill:
– “Tom, believing you live in a Republic with 300,000,000 people is a delusion which heads off all actual pragmatism.”
This is not a delusion I have, but in any case it`s not at all clear
that this or any other delusion “heads off all actual pragmatism”.
– “Until there is actual representation, everything said by we
proles is literally hot air (unless it’s happens to coincide with
whatever benefits the regime).”
I use “our government” simply as shorthand for what you call “the
regime”, but perhaps may be more accurately described as a multicentric
mess.
In any case, the painstaking efforts of LVMI to grow the Mises
website, and the welcome reception of and contribution to those efforts
by everyone here – yourself included – belies both your near-nihilistic
cynicism and your conclusion, as to virtually every topic discussed
here. Words are deeds, though they be more or less frivolous, weighty,
insightful or consequential.
If the other Mises bloggers agreed with you as to the possible
efficacy of their words, either generally or on this particular topic,
they simply wouldn`t bother to post.
However, I share your concern about efficiacy, which is why I
criticize posts such these (whether by Stephan, George Reisman, Sean
Corrigan, Walter Block, or Jeffrey Tucker), which are, by and large,
more of a circle jerk than an effort to engage.
– “thank you for being respectful”
My pleasure, but you hardly need to thank me; this is a community, after all.
– “even though you mistakenly think I’m a nut.
In this case, it is you who are mistaken (not that you ARE a nut, but that you think I think you are).
Tom
Published: November 1, 2009 9:35 PM