TT's Lost in Tokyo — by TokyoTom

I noted in a previous post that Rob Bradley, CEO of the Institute for Energy Research and lead blogger at MasterResource, has cheered on big coal and bashed what he calls “Malthusian anti-energy crusaders”,  but ignoring while he does so the questions of (1) whether there are any legitimate disputes as to the environmental impacts of coal production and consumption and (2) the role of government in contributing to or perpetuating these disputes.

In response, Rob says that his bona fides are not to be questioned.  I quote below the relevant portions of the comment thread (emphasis added):

TokyoTom { 02.05.09 at 2:50 am }

Rob, are the John Badens, Terry Andersons, Bruce Yandles, Elinor Ostroms and others who want to find ways to manage our commons better – by improving ownership, incentives and pricing signals – also part of a “Malthusian crusade”?

I just wanna make sure I know who to hate.

As for that big fly ash breach/spill in Tennessee, I’m glad that you didn’t point out how this was a result of government ownership of TVA, with the added benefit that costs will be borne not only by direct and indirect victims, but by taxpayers as well. No sense in pointing out how government is so often in the way, particularly if it detracts from our “we hate enviros!” message. Last thing we ever want to do is to reach a shared understanding with enviros of the institutional underpinnings of problems, since that means our funders might lose some of their fairly purchased, government-given special privileges.

rbradley { 02.05.09 at 9:46 pm }

TT:

I have several thousand pages in the public domain on free market theory and history applied to energy, including criticisms of political capitalism.

The ball is in your court to buy and read any of my six energy books–and to visit my website http://www.politicalcapitalism.org. Particularly focus on Enron on this website.

Capitalism at Work (2009) is the latest book that I invite you to read and review.

TokyoTom { 02.05.09 at 10:21 pm }

Rob, does this mean that you are a “free-marketer” in principle, but can’t be bothered to show it in your public policy discussions?

rbradley { 02.06.09 at 9:28 am }

TT:

It means that you have to do your homework. I take on opposing views as a matter of course in my books and essays–I hope you understand that I do not have time to regurgitate my arguments in a personal debate with you.

But if you are really a “libertarian,” you need to get more critical toward climate alarmism and the history of Malthusianism–and more realistic towards government failure versus market failure.

I am signing off with you but look foward to your review of Capitalism at Work–a multi-disciplinary treatise on heroic capitalism that as a libertarian you should study.

TokyoTom { 02.07.09 at 4:44 am }

Rob, Roy Cordato (linked at my name) said this:

“The starting point for all Austrian welfare economics is the goal seeking individual and the ability of actors to formulate and execute plans within the context of their goals. … [S]ocial welfare or efficiency problems arise because of interpersonal conflict. [C] that similarly cannot be resolved by the market process, gives rise to catallactic inefficiency by preventing useful information from being captured by prices.”

“Environmental problems are brought to light as striking at the heart of the efficiency problem as typically seen by Austrians, that is, they generate human conflict and disrupt inter- and intra-personal plan formulation and execution.”

“The focus of the Austrian approach to environmental economics is conflict resolution. The purpose of focusing on issues related to property rights is to describe the source of the conflict and to identify possible ways of resolving it.”

“If a pollution problem exists then its solution must be found in either a clearer definition of property rights to the relevant resources or in the stricter enforcement of rights that already exist. This has been the approach taken to environmental problems by nearly all Austrians who have addressed these kinds of issues (see Mises 1998; Rothbard 1982; Lewin 1982; Cordato 1997). This shifts the perspective on pollution from one of “market failure” where the free market is seen as failing to generate an efficient outcome, to legal failure where the market process is prevented from proceeding efficiently because the necessary institutional framework, clearly defined and enforced property rights, is not in place.”

Do you agree?

My focus in reviewing your comments and those of other posters is whether you are contributing in good faith to conflict RESOLUTION – conflict over readily understandable preferences – or to “winning” the struggle over government for the benefit of your clients.

I think that`s perfectly fair.

So far, I don`t see much of an effort at good faith engagement [with the enviros].

Here`s to hoping that you demonstrate here that you are a free-marketer, and not a rent-seeker.

Wow, what startling news.  Thanks for sharing it with us Rob.  Now perhaps you can catch your breath.

Rob Bradley trumpets an opinion poll that indicates that voters care more about more immediate and pressing issues than they do about distant problems like climate change that they can pass off to their children and others, queries in his headline “Global Warming Realism over Alarmism: Is the Public Leading?” and tells us:

Wow, what a victory for energy and climate realism in regard to an issue that future historians might consider to be the Malthusians’ last stand (am I too optimistic?).  …

What might such poll results mean at some of America’s top private foundations that have spent so much time and money hyping the climate issue, including the Pew Foundation itself? … 

Here’s hoping that these foundations demote climate alarmism in favor of meeting here-and-now human needs during these tough economic times. That would be a double win.

It’s hard to see on what basis Bradley sees the poll as particularly revealing, but it is interesting that he hopes that other private foundations – funded by wealthy individuals and firms that have different policy priorities than the individuals and firms that fund Rob’s own foundation, Institute for Energy Research (including, until recently, Exxon), and other foundations that Rob is associated with (Cato and CEI) – will change THEIR priorities to match HIS.  Not a bad idea, to be sure, but is Rob holding out any olive branches or otherwise trying to productive engage PEW or others?  Or is it just that his preferences (and those of the people/firms that fund him) are so obviously better, and ridicule works better than discourse?

Here’s to hoping that Rob Bradley (and foundations that he associates with) will explore ways to engage productively with the evil/idiotic climate alarmists/Malthusians, with the goal of meeting human energy AND environmental needs through better functioning markets. That would be a double win.

Oh, and here are the comments I left to Rob on his post:

No, Rob, the public trails. Not particularly a surprise for a long-term commons problem, especially when we’ve fallen into a depression.

Thank goodness, ‘cuz us Austrians never want to figure out how to address commons problems. At least not ones involving fossil fuels.

Rob Bradley has a new post up at MasterResource, cheering on big (and now “clean”) coal, which has apparently received assurances from the Obama administration – after being bad-mouthed by NASA scientist Jim Hansen, Steven Chu and Obama himself – that, despite pressures from the “Malthusian anti-energy crusade” regarding climate change impacts, the recent massive TVA fly-ash spill and opposition to destructive mountaintop removal practices in Appalachia, coal will remain profitable during Obama’s term and central to US energy supplies.  Hooray!

But I wasn’t quite clear on all of Rob’s message, so I asked him a few questions in the comment thread:

Rob, are the John Badens, Terry Andersons, Bruce Yandles, Elinor Ostroms and others who want to find ways to manage our commons better – by improving ownership, incentives and pricing signals – also part of a[n evil] “Malthusian crusade”?

I just wanna make sure I know who to hate.

As for that big fly-ash breach/spill in Tennessee, I’m glad that you didn’t point out how this was a result of government ownership of TVA, with the added benefit that costs will be borne not only by direct and indirect victims, but by taxpayers as well. No sense in pointing out how government is so often in the way, particularly if it detracts from our “we hate enviros!” message. Last thing we ever want to do is to reach a shared understanding with enviros of the institutional underpinnings of problems, since that means our funders might lose some of their fairly purchased, government-given special privileges.

While it’s clear that “free-market” Rob cares little about whether the coal industry continues commercial activities that shift the environmental costs and risks (including potential costs arising from GHG emissions) to others, I forgot to ask Rob whether, as a hearty cheerleader for those poor coal underdogs, he also supports their position that the government should subsidize their change in business model by (a) having Uncle Sam pay the bulk of capital costs for IGCC (integrated gas combined cycle plant) [something like $1 billion for the first one with CCS], (b) giving them a further break (reduced royalties) on the sweet deals they already have for stripping coal from public lands and (c) – now that the federal government is getting into the busy of running the financial sector – making sure that power producers that want to use coal have easy access to credit, by twisting the arms of those uppity Wall Street financiers who with their fancy new “Carbon Principles” and “Enhanced Due Diligence” seem a bit too reluctant to extend credit for coal-fired power plants.

Here’s hoping Rob weighs in further.  I want to make sure I’m not messing up when I try to distinguish the “white hats” from the “black hats”.   From what I can tell so far, seeking to manipulate government policy for your own benefit is evil – as long as you’re not a coal firm, and we call the evil ones “Malthusians”.  Right?

Robert L. Bradley, Jr. is an energy expert (author, former speechwriter for Key Lay and director of public policy analysis at Enron, founder and CEO of Institute for Energy Research) with libertarian leanings. 

But in a series of posts on climate issues on the recently launched  “free market” energy group blog MasterResource that he spearheads, Rob doesn’t come off as much of a libertarian, free-market guy as he suggests, since he doesn’t so much advocate for free market approaches to such issues as he takes evident pleasure in mocking enviros (and the preferences they share with many others) – all while ignoring that the status quo isn’t free of rent-seekers (precisely as Roderick Long and Ed Dolan have criticized libertarians).

1.  Take, for example, his January 25 post, Why Do the Alarmists Feel Bad About Debates–and Debating?.  In this post, Rob examines an online debate between scientist Joe Romm of Climate Progress and Jerry Taylor of Cato, notes that Joe later seems to acknowledge that Jerry did better in the debate, but skips over some of Joe’s chief criticisms of “skeptic” opponents by concluding:

Mr. Romm has all but conceded that the skeptics of climate alarmism beat the alarmists in debate, posting about it here and here. He blames it on the dishonesty of the “deniers,” but in fact they might have a much stronger intellectual and practical case. And I dare say that Romm does not feel he did particularly well against Taylor in their online debate and is not itching to debate him again, particularly in person.

But if I am wrong, I say: let’s get a big audience for it. Make the stakes high. Sell tickets. Poll the audience. It will be that entertaining!

Here was my comment to Rob:

Well Rob, Joe Romm isn’t ALL alarmists, but I’d say it’s rather clear that he’s saying that “scientists” are not good policy debaters – as it’s something that they’re not trained in. I suppose you would hardly disagree.

On top of that, Joe Romm and others simply are not trained in public choice or Austrian perspectives on political economy issues, so he clearly doesn’t understand what Jerry patiently tries to explain. But there’s rather alot of that to go around – across the political spectrum and on many, many issues – and I rather fail to understand how mocking that who lack understanding is a good way to open their minds to how wealth creation occurs and to the perils of using the state.

In addition, Jerry Taylor is clearly different from – more open and intellectually honest – most of the other debaters Joe Romm refers to.

2.  In another thread, Rob suggested that “doing nothing” was the preferred policy approach to climate; thankfully, in response to a comment from me, Rob expressly noted that

a free-market approach is not about “do nothing” but implementing a whole new energy approach to remove myriad regulation and subsidies that have built up over a century or more.

Great!  Inquiring minds are waiting to hear about what it is that Rob Bradley and others at “MasterResource” actually recommend as an approach to climate concerns!

Meanwhile, can we stop pretending that “enviros” are the only ones fighting over the wheel of government, much less that they can hold a candle to wealthy corporate insiders?

Bob Murphy, an economist at Rob Bradley‘s Institute for Energy Research, has posted on the main Mises Blog a link to a paper that he has submitted to an economic journal, “Rolling the DICE: Nordhaus’ Dubious Case for a Carbon Tax“.

[Update:  Bob thoughtfully copied environmental economist David Zetland on his draft paper, and while he has not returned to comment at his own Mises thread, Bob has made further comments at David’s blog and at his own shared blog.]

IER promotes Murphy’s paper as ambitiously “tackl[ing] the basic premise of pricing carbon … using William Nordhaus’ DICE model as the representative of economic orthodoxy”, but it seems to me that both his objectives and his achievements are far more modest.  Murphy:

(1) fails to attack either the fundamental premises of orthodox cost-benefit analysis as applied to climate change or the basic premises of the DICE model,

(2) focusses chiefly on various uncertainties involved in the parameters in Nordhaus’ model, while ignoring not only that such uncertainties cut in more than one direction, but that other economists have strongly argued that Nordhaus has underestimated or mishandled important damages and uncertainties (e.g., John Quiggin and Sterner & Persson) and has simply misunderstood the usefulness of CBA in the face of important uncertainties that CBA cannot easily handle (e.g., Martin Weitzman, Richard Tol, others),

(3) fails to note the point (made by McKitrick and others) that even if imperfect, carbon taxes, if substituted for income, capital gains and other taxes, will significantly lessen important economic distortions; and

(3) fails to offer much in the way of Austrian approaches to CBA, much less to the property rights and preference issues involved in economic decisions involving significant externalities or open-access common resources, fails to point to possible ways in which government policy may be inefficient, costly, and subject to the skewing effects of rent-seeking, and fails to recommend important policy changes that are needed to facilitate a transition to a lower carbon economy, by promoting economic freedom, competition in energy and power markets, easing corporate tax depreciation rules that slow innovation, and strengthening property rights and common law enforcement mechanisms (Bruce Yandle and Jon Adler have both made concrete suggestions on desirable policy changes; what is holding back people at LvMI?)

In short, what Murphy delivers is flawed and far less than billed.

[Update:  As Ludwig von Mises himself noted (see my blog post “Mises on fixing externalities“), private property institutions arose in response to the economic inefficiency of older systems that did not force economic actors to bear the external effects of their actions.  We are intelligent and occasionally rational creatures – why should we not be pro-actively considering what institutions might be desirable and feasible for dealing with the effects of our activities on the atmosphere and  climate (and oceans, ecosystems and unowned species, or how to improve governance in countries that don’t recognize or protect property rights)?]

I copy below (with some typo corrections) the comments that I posted on Bob’s Mises thread; I will try to revisit later to add links and further resources:

Bob, thanks for posting this

Here are a few quick notes:

– although you note that every step in Nordhaus’ analysis involves uncertainty, you have failed to note Marty Weitzman’s recent work that tells us how strongly uncertainly serves as a factor SUPPORTING early action – an important factor that neither Nordhaus nor you take into account at all. Weitzman states, “the influence on cost-benefit analysis of fat-tailed structural uncertainty about climate change, coupled with great unsureness about high-temperature damages, can outweigh the influence of discounting or anything else.”

– while you indicate that one key area of uncertainty is that future GHG concentrations may be overstated, your observations actually suggest the opposite – that because the oceanic sink is finite, as it becomes saturated atmospheric GHG concentrations are apt to rise even more sharply.

– while you indicate that the temperature increase form a given GHG concentration may be overstated, you ignore the possibility of the opposite – that the long-term temperature impact of a given GHG level may be higher than the number Nordhaus has used. Further, given paleo evidence that Hansen has noted, it appears unlikely that climate sensitivity will be less than 3 degrees C.

– Similarly, while you note that economic damages from a given temperature increase may be overstated, you fail to address the possibility that such damages may be understated – and also fail to note that the Earth is apparently more sensitive to climate changes than has been expected, witness the rapid Arctic/Greenland melting that we are seeing at only a 0.7 C increase, and the rapid expansion of tropical zones.

– it is a distinct possibility that Nordhaus has underestimated nonmarket damages, as John Quiggin and others argue. In any case, Nordhaus does not account for the changing relative prices for various goods and services that the changing composition of the economy and climate change will induce,as Sterner and Persson have noted in a recent paper at RFF:

“future scarcities that will be induced by the changing composition of the economy and climate change should lead to rising relative prices for certain goods and services, raising the estimated damage of climate change and counteracting the effect of discounting. … [C]hanging relative prices … has major implications for a correct valuation of future climate damages. We introduce these results into a slightly modified version of the DICE model (Nordhaus 1994) and find that taking relative prices into account can have as large an effect on economically warranted abatement levels as can a low discount rate.”

– in looking at damages, you tend to focus on the US picture alone, without regard to other nations – largely poorer ones – in which greater net losses are expected to be felt. You also completely fail to address, even in the case of the US, that benefits and impacts will not be uniformly shared, and that those with net benefits presently have no obligation to compensate those shouldering losses.

– while you fairly note that Nordhaus’ analysis can be helpful in comparing the relative net costs and benefits of different proposals, you fail to note that with changed assumptions, even using Nordhaus’ model as is, much higher estimates of “optimal” levels of carbon taxes can be derived.

– You point to Nordhaus’ remarks on how free-riding be various countries will drastically affect the benefits to be derived from any carbon taxes, but argue that this itself is a justification for the US to free ride, rather than for us to work to coordinate compliance by others.

– You also seem to be very worried that a coordinated approach would actually result in heavily distorted worldwide production, when widespread noncompliance by the various Kyoto parties indicates how ready nations are not to unilaterally assume burdens that other nations will not share.

– You also express concern that any coordinated approaches to climate change may be difficult to unwind as information changes, when it is clearly that various nations (and their industries) are acutely aware of comparative advantage and quite ready to react to what others are or are not doing (in the fact of the easy movement of capital).

– Further, you have confused measures like possible geoengineering and carbon sequestration approaches – which would be incentivized by carbon taxes and are a form of “mitigation”, with what is properly considered as “adaptation” to unavoided temperature increases and climate changes.

There are of course many other points that one would like to see Austrians making – such as the benefits of freeing up the economy from burdensome regulations (while strengthening property rights and private litigation remedies), adding greater degrees of freedom and competition to energy markets to drive greater energy efficiency, allowing immediate depreciation of capital investments, and the desirability of avoiding government-directed investments and subsidies – but perhaps these are things you intend to address in another paper spelling out a truly Austrian approach, rather than nitpicking at a single conventional CBA argument?

Sincerely,

TT

(I apologize that this is link-poor, but it seems like the best way to actually have this comment posted.)

Published: June 12, 2008 7:49 AM

Bob, allow me to suggest that you (and others) may also wish to consider taking a look at addressing also the recent short pieces by Joe Stiglitz, Tom Schelling and Ken Arrow others in last year`s The Economists’ Voice; they are as relevant as Nordhaus, and much more accessible to the average reader:

Joseph Stiglitz, A New Agenda for Global Warming

Kenneth J. Arrow, Global Climate Change: A Challenge to Policy

Thomas C. Schelling, Climate Change: The Uncertainties, the Certainties and What They Imply About Action

Published: June 12, 2008 9:41 AM